Shadow Inventory Shrinking…in Most Regions

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) released their 3rd Quarter Delinquency Survey last week. The report revealed that both the delinquency and shadow inventory numbers are improving. DSNews, reporting on the survey, explained:

“The Mortgage Bankers Associationnoted in a Thursday report that a four-year low in serious mortgage delinquencies and a drop in the percentage of loans in foreclosure for the third quarter suggest fewer homes are part of the shadow inventory that’s always threatening prices and creating market uncertainty.”

This is great news. However, we must realize two things:

  • The inventory level is still four-times the normal average
  • Foreclosure backlogs still exist in certain judicial foreclosure states

Back in September, we explained that the foreclosure challenge in most parts of the country is diminishing with the major exception being the Northeast. A new report confirms that states in the Northeast are now leading the nation in percentage increase in foreclosure activity. In RealtyTrac’s latest Foreclosure Market Report, it was revealed that:

“The three states with the biggest annual increases in foreclosure activity in October were New Jersey (140 percent), New York (123 percent) and Connecticut (41 percent).”

These same states were rocked by super storm Sandy which will result in a continued delay in these properties coming to market. RealtyTrac’s vice president Daren Blomquist explains:

“We continued to see vastly different foreclosure trends across the country in October, depending primarily on how each state’s foreclosing infrastructure was able to handle the high volume of delinquent loans during the worst of the foreclosure crisis in 2010. Unfortunately the three states dealing with the biggest rebound in deferred foreclosure activity— New Jersey, New York and Connecticut — also had to deal with the devastation to homes inflicted by super storm Sandy. The foreclosure moratoriums being put into effect as a result of the storm will likely extend the already-lengthy time to foreclose in these states, further prolonging a fundamentally sound housing recovery.”

Things are looking better in the vast majority of communities across the country. However, the Northeast should still be looking for prices to soften as Mark Zandi ofMoody’s Ecnomy explained in a recent Wall Street Journal article:

“Some markets are still going to suffer more price declines.”

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